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Today marks Liberation Day as President Trump imposes 25% tariffs on imported cars, with other goods like semiconductors and medicines also facing increased costs. The European Union plans countermeasures, raising concerns of a trade war and potential recession.In the DAX, a critical support level is being tested after a near completion of a double high pattern. A drop below 22,239 points could signal a trend reversal, with potential declines towards 21,000 points.
Germany's Bundestag is poised to pass a constitutional amendment allowing increased borrowing for defense and a €500 billion infrastructure fund, while the UK faces budget cuts. The EUR/GBP is expected to remain below 0.8495, with potential for three more Bank of England rate cuts this year, contingent on improved UK growth prospects.
The new American president is considering imposing a 25% trade tax on Mexico and Canada, while urging Europe to increase purchases of American oil and gas to address the trade deficit. Despite a resilient US economy, European markets, particularly the DAX, may face increased volatility as clearer trade policies emerge in the coming weeks.
Investors are optimistic that the tariffs announced by Donald Trump will be less severe than anticipated, as he prepares for his inauguration as the 47th President of the USA. Meanwhile, the DAX index may be due for a correction after reaching an upper standard deviation of 20,800 points, indicating it has strayed too far from its statistical mean. A potential consolidation towards the mean value of 19,867 points is expected, reflecting past patterns of market behavior.
Global stock markets are currently in correction mode, with the DAX testing a crucial support zone around 19,700 points. The Nasdaq is also under pressure, relying on its 50-day moving average at 21,014 points to maintain stability. Meanwhile, the Nikkei remains in an uptrend but awaits a breakout above 40,286 points, while Chinese equities continue to struggle, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 19,131 points.
Investors are expected to remain cautious on the last trading day of the year, with trading in Frankfurt ending early at 14:00. Key economic data from China, including the PMI indices, will be closely monitored, alongside US unemployment claims and the ISM manufacturing index later in the week. The DAX is projected to gain around 20% for the year, influenced by interest rate changes and the AI sector's growth.
US President Donald Trump's tax cuts and tariffs may lead to increased inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates. As the DAX index struggles to maintain its position after recent highs, a potential correction looms, with key support levels at 20,000 points and below. Investors are cautious ahead of the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision.
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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